Official storm updates load separately from the weather and ocean forecast.
Weather + Waves · Updated Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:28 AM MST
This week in our towns
Weather + Waves.
This week's weather and surf for Todos Santos, El Pescadero, and Cerritos.
Day by day
| Day | Weather | High | Rain | Cerritos | La Pastora | San Pedrito | Best time to surf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11 | Cloudy (Open-Meteo); gusts about 19–31 mph (SMN, caution) | about 88 °F | SMN, BCS: isolated light showers, up to about 0.2 in; Open-Meteo, Todos Santos: dry | 4–6 ft | 3–5 ft | 2–4 ft | Late morning, light (about 2–5 mph); about 10–12 mph at La Pastora in the afternoon, Cerritos stays light |
| Thu 12 | Cloudy (Open-Meteo) | about 87 °F | SMN, BCS: isolated light showers, up to about 0.2 in; Open-Meteo: dry | 3–5 ft | 2–4 ft | 2–4 ft | Morning, light (about 4–10 mph); breezier in the afternoon, up to about 15 mph |
| Fri 13 | Fog or low cloud possible in the morning (Open-Meteo); gusts about 19–31 mph (SMN, caution) | about 86 °F | SMN: heavy showers for northern BCS (about 1–2 in), none listed for southern BCS; Open-Meteo, Todos Santos: dry, 31% chance | 3–5 ft | 3–5 ft | 2–4 ft | Early morning at Cerritos (about 6–8 mph); wind rises to about 13–18 mph by mid-afternoon |
| Sat 14 | Mostly sunny (Open-Meteo) | about 84 °F | SMN, BCS: showers, about 0.2–1 in; Open-Meteo, Todos Santos: dry, 28% chance | 4–7 ft | 4–7 ft | 2–5 ft | Morning, light (about 3–9 mph); about 7–10 mph through the afternoon |
| Sun 15 | Sunny (Open-Meteo) | about 83 °F | Dry (Open-Meteo); beyond SMN’s four-day forecast | 4–7 ft | 4–7 ft | 3–5 ft | La Pastora in the morning (about 6–8 mph); about 10–11 mph at Cerritos until noon, easing later |
| Mon 16 | Fog or low cloud possible in the morning (Open-Meteo) | about 84 °F | Dry (Open-Meteo); beyond SMN’s four-day forecast | 4–7 ft | 4–7 ft | 3–5 ft | Morning, very light (about 1–4 mph until about 11 AM); about 5–8 mph after |
| Tue 17 | Sunny (Open-Meteo) | about 84 °F | Dry (Open-Meteo); beyond SMN’s four-day forecast | 3–5 ft | 4–7 ft | 2–4 ft | Before about 2 PM, light (under about 5 mph); about 6–7 mph after |
- Surf: daytime (6 AM to 6 PM) wave-face heights from the Surfline spot forecasts for each beach, converted from metres to feet and rounded. Punta Lobos: no break-level forecast available.
- High: Open-Meteo model at the Todos Santos point (23.45N 110.22W), rounded.
- Rain: SMN general forecast No. 629 (today) and four-day forecast No. 314 (Thursday to Saturday), for BCS as marked; Open-Meteo model at the Todos Santos point. SMN’s next four-day forecast is due about 1:00 PM MST today and may change Friday and Saturday.
- Best time to surf: our read of Surfline’s wind forecast. Around here the wind usually comes up by midday, so early sessions are usually cleanest (our surf guide). Wind is in mph and shown only when it changes the surf.
What’s normal now
Summer and early fall here are hot and humid. Most of the year’s rain falls in August and September, often as chubascos, short, heavy showers and thunderstorms. Summer south swells favor Cerritos, and the winter northwest swells that light up San Pedrito and La Pastora come later (our surf guide). Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific runs May 15 to November 30, with most storms between late June and early October (NHC). By November the rain is mostly over. Todos Santos averages about 0.5 in (13 mm) for all of November, on about one rainy day, against about 3.7 in (95 mm) in September. November highs average about 84 °F and lows about 60 °F (SMN 1991–2020 averages, Todos Santos station). So this week’s mostly dry forecast at the Todos Santos point (Open-Meteo) fits the season, even with SMN showers possible Friday and Saturday, and highs of about 84 °F from Saturday to Tuesday (Open-Meteo) match the November average of about 84 °F. Today through Friday run a few degrees warmer, at about 86–88 °F (Open-Meteo).
How we check
We check the forecasts for the corridor every morning and update this page weekly, sooner when something changes. When a tropical storm or hurricane could come within 300 miles of Todos Santos in the next 5 days, or Baja California Sur has a watch or warning, we check and update several times a day. For safety decisions, follow NHC, SMN, Protección Civil BCS and, on the water, SEMAR.
Storm watches & warnings · official sources, live
Checking the current bulletins
Official BCS weather check
Checking SMN, SEMAR, NHC, and Protección Civil BCS
Official bulletins load separately from the weather and ocean models.
Checking SMN, SEMAR, NHC, and Protección Civil BCS
Official bulletins load separately from the weather and ocean models.
This summary explains current official data in plain English. It does not send emergency alerts. If a bulletin and this summary differ, use the bulletin.
Storms
No storm threat for our towns
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No storm threat for our towns: NHC expects no tropical development in the next 7 days
NHC’s active-storms list shows no storms in the eastern Pacific near Mexico, and its eastern Pacific outlook (5:00 AM MST) expects no tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Tropical Storm Pena is several hundred miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, far to the west.
Earlier storm updates, September 23 to November 4, 2026, are in the storm archive.
Prepare without panicking. The hurricane guide has the local checklist.
Season statusLoading
For current conditions and any storm, use the official links above.
More detail: swells, surf wind, rain, storms, and live readings
- Swells (Surfline, Cerritos, 9 AM MST): Today a west-northwest swell of about 4.5 ft at 14 seconds, a southwest swell of about 2 ft at 14 seconds, and a short south swell of about 2 ft at 10 seconds. Thursday about 4 ft at 13 seconds from the west-northwest, about 2 ft at 13 seconds from the southwest, and a small long-period swell of about 1.5 ft at 18 seconds from the south-southwest. Friday about 3.5 ft at 13 seconds from the west-northwest and about 2.5 ft at 16 seconds from the south-southwest. Saturday about 4.5 ft at 15 seconds from the west-northwest, with about 3 ft at 14 seconds from the south-southwest and about 2 ft at 17 seconds from the south-southwest. Sunday the west-northwest swell peaks at about 6 ft at 14 seconds, with about 3.5 ft at 15 seconds from the south-southwest. Monday about 6 ft at 16 seconds from the west-northwest and about 3 ft at 13 seconds from the south-southwest. Tuesday about 4 ft at 14 seconds and about 2.5 ft at 20 seconds from the west-northwest, with about 2.5 ft at 13 seconds from the south-southwest. Punta Lobos: no break-level forecast available.
- Wind, only where it matters for surf or safety (mph): At the beaches (Surfline, daytime): today light until about 2 PM at Cerritos (about 2–4 mph from 8 AM) and about 5–6 mph at La Pastora until late morning, then about 10–12 mph there in the afternoon. Thursday about 4–10 mph in the morning, up to about 15 mph at La Pastora in the afternoon. Friday about 6–8 mph at Cerritos early and about 9–12 mph at La Pastora, then about 13–14 mph at Cerritos and about 17–18 mph at La Pastora by mid-afternoon. Saturday about 3–9 mph in the morning, about 7–10 mph through the afternoon. Sunday about 10–11 mph cross-shore at Cerritos until noon, about 6–9 mph at La Pastora. Monday about 1–4 mph until about 11 AM, then about 5–8 mph. Tuesday under about 5 mph until about 2 PM, then about 6–7 mph. Caution: SMN has gusts of about 19–31 mph for BCS today (No. 629) and Friday (No. 314); be careful with beach umbrellas and shade covers, and take care with trailers, RVs, and high-sided vehicles on Hwy 19. Nothing this week reaches 46 mph.
- Rain and temperatures: SMN No. 629 (5:00 AM MST today) and No. 314 (1:00 PM MST Tuesday) have isolated showers for Baja California Sur today and Thursday, 0.1–5 mm (up to about 0.2 in). For Friday SMN No. 314 shows a low-pressure system bringing heavy showers to Baja California and northern BCS (25–50 mm, about 1–2 in, in northern BCS), and for Saturday showers of 5–25 mm (about 0.2–1 in) across BCS. Open-Meteo at the Todos Santos point (23.45N 110.22W) has no measurable rain this week, with a 31% chance Friday and 28% Saturday. Highs (Open-Meteo): about 88 °F today, 87 Thursday, 86 Friday, then about 83–84 °F through Tuesday; lows about 67–72 °F.
- Storms (NHC, 5:00 AM MST today): The eastern Pacific outlook expects no tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days, so there is no tropical storm or hurricane to track and no tropical watches or warnings for Baja California Sur. Tropical Storm Pena is several hundred miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, far to the west. NHC’s next outlook is due about 11:00 AM MST. NHC eastern Pacific outlook.
- Multi-source: NHC is official for storms (none threaten us); rain: SMN has showers for BCS Friday and Saturday while Open-Meteo has no measurable rain at the Todos Santos point; surf from Surfline for Cerritos, La Pastora, and San Pedrito; on the water, follow SEMAR.
Live model readings
Right now, near Todos Santos and off Pescadero
These panels load when you open the page, from regional models. Beaches can differ.
Checking the weather forecast time
Checking the ocean forecast time
Weather near Todos Santos
Air tempLoading
Cloud coverLoading
HumidityLoading
Water temperature off Pescadero
Surface waterLoading
Seven-day weather outlook
Start with the next three days. Days four through seven are an early look and can change.
Which beach to check
These notes describe the breaks. Check today's waves from shore before you go in. The offshore forecast can't show the sandbars or rocks at your beach.
Cerritos
The usual learning option in this group. Its sand bottom and inside whitewater are more forgiving on smaller days. Bigger swell brings heavier outside sets. Watch from shore first. If you are unsure, ask a local surf school.
Read the Cerritos guideSan Pedrito
A cobblestone right for intermediate and advanced surfers. Winter northwest swell is its usual season. Rocks, current, and a defined takeoff make this a poor place to learn. Check it from shore before you paddle out.
Read the San Pedrito guideLa Pastora
An exposed right for experienced surfers. It usually favors larger winter northwest swell. Wind and current matter, and the dirt-road approach can change after rain. Check access and the break from shore before you decide.
Read the La Pastora guideOpen Surfline's reports for Cerritos, San Pedrito, or La Pastora for another view. This page uses open data from MET Norway, PacIOOS or the Open-Meteo wave model, and NOAA, with our own explanation of what it means locally.
Places we check
- National Hurricane Center (NHC)Official Pacific storm track, strength, watches, and warnings
- SMN / CONAGUAMexico's national weather bulletin
- SEMARMexican Navy marine forecast
- Protección Civil BCSLocal watches, warnings, and instructions for Baja California Sur
- WindyModel map cross-check (ECMWF and others) — not official for watches; we say if it agrees or disagrees with NHC
NHC decides watches and warnings. How we update. If a bulletin and this page differ, use the bulletin.
Weather model by MET Norway. Waves by PacIOOS, or the Open-Meteo wave model when PacIOOS has no current run. Water temperature by NOAA CoastWatch. Sources and how to read them
Sources, AI, and what we track
How we update
When a storm is in play for Baja California Sur, we stay with the official record — and we say so in plain English.
We pull the latest National Hurricane Center advisories, Mexico's SMN/CONAGUA guidance, SEMAR marine forecasts, and Protección Civil BCS when they issue local watches, warnings, or instructions. NHC decides watches, warnings, and official track. Windy is a model cross-check only. When Windy and NHC agree, we say they agree. When they disagree, we say they disagree — in one short line. The same places are listed at the top of this page under Places we check.
We use AI to gather those updates quickly and to rewrite them for people without a meteorology degree. Every note is corridor-first for Todos Santos, Pescadero, and Cerritos.
What we're tracking
- Active Pacific storms that can affect BCS
- Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings on our side of the peninsula
- Expected approach timing, rain totals, and dangerous surf
- Changes between full and intermediate advisories so this page stays current
For decisions that affect safety, follow NHC and Protección Civil BCS first. If an official bulletin and this page differ, use the bulletin.
Sources and how to read them
Where the forecast comes from and what it can tell us
Weather
MET Norway's Locationforecast supplies the temperature, cloud cover, humidity, wind, and expected rain. We ask for a point near Todos Santos at 23.45 N, 110.23 W. The forecast covers an area around that point.
Forecast grid: Checking. Time the forecast describes: . Last loaded: .
Ocean waves
PacIOOS's global WaveWatch III model supplies offshore wave height, time between waves, wave direction, and the main swell. The University of Hawaii runs the model with support from NOAA and the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System. We use the nearest working sea grid off Pescadero at 23.5 N, 110.5 W.
Ocean grid: Checking. Time the forecast describes: . Last loaded: .
This is a computer estimate for a large offshore square, about 50 km or 31 miles across. It can't show the exact waves breaking at Cerritos, San Pedrito, La Pastora, or Elías Calles. It also can't show moving sandbars, exposed rocks, or wind at each beach.
Water temperature
NOAA CoastWatch and Coral Reef Watch supply a daily estimate of surface water temperature from satellite data. We show the latest available estimate for an area off Pescadero. Water temperature at the beach can differ.
Water grid: Checking. Date the analysis describes: . Last loaded: .
The beach notes
Our own guides to Cerritos, San Pedrito, and La Pastora explain the usual setup at each break. They add local context to the offshore forecast. We don't have a live observer or camera feed reporting from each beach.
Storm forecasts and local instructions
The alert box above checks the current SMN general forecast, SMN 96-hour forecast, SEMAR marine forecast, NHC active-storm file, NHC eastern Pacific outlook, and Protección Civil BCS notices. We translate the useful facts into plain English and keep links to the original updates. This does not replace an official warning.
Alert box last updated: . SMN: Checking. SMN four-day: Checking. SEMAR: Checking. NHC storms: Checking. NHC outlook: Checking. Protección Civil BCS: Checking.
Protección Civil BCS provides local instructions, road closures, shelter details, and evacuation information. SEMAR publishes official marine forecasts and warnings.
Follow official alerts and local instructions if they differ from the numbers here. NHC controls cyclone tracks and watches or warnings. SMN controls Mexico's rain and weather forecast. SEMAR controls the marine bulletin. Protección Civil BCS controls local instructions. The hurricane guide explains how to prepare.
When sources differ
Different forecasts often cover different places or times. That is not a conflict. We flag a disagreement only when current sources describe the same fact, place, and forecast period. Then we show both values and their source links. We do not average them or quietly choose one.
Checking the comparable official forecasts.
Easy maps and local overviews
BajaStorms is the fastest plain-English local overview I have found. It is an independent service. Windy is useful when you want to compare wind and rain models on a map. Open either for another look at the forecast. Use SMN and NHC for official storm updates, and Protección Civil for local instructions.
Times, units, and missing data
All displayed times use Todos Santos time. We show when each forecast or satellite analysis applies and when this browser last loaded it. The PacIOOS feed gives us the forecast time, but not the exact time its model run began.
The page converts Celsius to Fahrenheit, meters to feet, kilometers per hour to miles per hour, and millimeters to inches.
Last load attempted: . Check the weather and ocean times above to see which feeds loaded.
We convert and explain the source data, so the display is not the providers' original product. Weather is licensed under MET Norway's open-data terms. PacIOOS's model metadata permits free use and redistribution with its accuracy warning. NOAA CoastWatch data are open public data. Long-term climate records and the San Diego comparison have their own sources in the weather guide.
- Curtis
Curtis lives at San Pedrito Beach in Pescadero and brokers real estate through Selling Sur. He writes about life along the corridor, from Todos Santos through Pescadero and Cerritos to Elías Calles.
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